[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Post-Holiday PV Prices Remain Mostly Stable Across Multiple Segments, with Limited Inventory Changes for Solar Cells

SMM, October 9:

Silica

• Price:

      Silica prices were basically stable this week. High-grade silica mine-mouth prices in Hubei remained at 310-350 yuan/mt, and high-grade silica mine-mouth prices in Inner Mongolia were 290-330 yuan/mt.

• Supply:

      Silica supply was ample overall, with supply-demand conditions basically stable.

• Demand:

      Silicon plants mainly purchased as needed.

Silicon metal

• Price:

      Silicon metal prices remained stable after the holiday, with SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt. Yesterday, the most-traded futures contract was stagnant and moved sideways. After the holiday, the market was mainly in a wait-and-see mode, with silicon suppliers holding firm quotes. Attention was on the pace of operating rate changes for silicon metal upstream and downstream, as well as changes in capital sentiment.

• Production:

      Silicon metal production in September was 317,000 mt, down 11% MoM. In September, different silicon metal enterprises saw both increases and cuts in operating rates. In October, considering the production release from capacity that resumed production in the north in September, combined with expectations for production cuts in the southwest mostly in late October or at month-end, October silicon metal production is expected to edge up MoM. The theoretical balance for silicon metal is expected to show slight destocking, with the extent narrowing from September.

• Inventory:

      SMM statistics show that on October 8, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions fell by 3,000 mt WoW from before the holiday (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions). Due to reduced shipments from plants to social warehouses, combined with buyers gradually picking up goods, silicon metal social inventory showed accelerated destocking in September.

Wafer

• Price:

    Market prices for 18X wafers were 0.994-1.002 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers were 1.026-1.044 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers were 1.119-1.145 yuan/piece. Overall wafer quotes remained temporarily stable. After the holiday, upstream and downstream price negotiations had not yet fully unfolded, with the market still mainly in a wait-and-see mode and overall trading relatively thin. Cost side, production cuts at upstream polysilicon enterprises have been gradually implemented, further strengthening cost support. Demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment was relatively cautious, and the boost from centralized projects had not yet clearly transmitted to the wafer segment.

• Production:

    According to the latest SMM survey, wafer production in October is expected to pull back slightly from September.

• Inventory:

    Current wafer inventory changes were limited overall. During the holiday, enterprises mainly delivered prior orders on hand, with a stable shipment pace and no large-scale new orders signed.

Solar cell

• Price:

      Solar cell prices remained stable after the holiday, with no adjustments seen in quotes across all sizes. The 210R price range held at 0.305-0.314 Yuan/W; the 183 price range held at 0.293-0.301 Yuan/W; and the 210N price range held at 0.29-0.296 Yuan/W. After the holiday ended, market transactions were still recovering. Solar cell plants made no adjustments to quotes, downstream module makers maintained just-in-time procurement, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continued. Attention will remain on the pace of post-holiday transaction recovery.

• Production:

      The direction of solar cell production contraction in October remained unchanged. Technological transformation at manufacturers' cell production lines was gradually rolling out, with production release constrained in phases. Combined with some enterprises remaining cautious about October demand expectations, total industry supply continued to pull back MoM. The actual extent of the decline will need to be confirmed based on the progress of technological transformation and production resumption arrangements at each enterprise.

• Inventory:

      Solar cell inventory changes were relatively small, remaining within a reasonable inventory range. Some manufacturers' orders on hand covered through mid-October. Before the holiday, centralized module tender volumes increased, with 210N benefiting most directly. Going forward, attention is needed on whether demand can continue after orders on hand are delivered, and whether the impact of export orders on 183 and 210R can persist.

PV film

• Price:

      PV-grade EVA:

  Mainstream transaction prices for domestic PV-grade EVA resin spot cargo remained at 11,000-11,200 yuan/mt, with spot prices holding steady for the time being. The settlement price for major petrochemical producers in this round was flat compared with the previous round. Crude oil prices have continued to fluctuate recently due to factors such as the US-Iran situation, but the cost side has not yet caused significant disruption to EVA raw material prices. Going forward, close attention should still be paid to the trend in crude oil prices and its transmission to the raw material side, as well as to actual supply-demand changes for EVA.

  PV film:

  Current prices for 420 g/m² transparent EVA film remained at 5.8-5.84 yuan/m², and prices for 390 g/m² EPE film remained at 5.77-5.81 yuan/m². The new round of monthly price negotiations for film has been fully concluded and implemented. Recently, spot order prices for film have remained generally stable, with no notable fluctuations in the market. Going forward, the focus will be on changes in upstream EVA resin prices, as well as the recovery of downstream module orders and changes in procurement pace.

• Production:

      PV-grade EVA production remained generally stable; film production schedules in October are expected to edge down MoM from September.

• Inventory:

      Petrochemical producers' inventories are currently at relatively low levels, while film producers' inventories remain within a reasonable range.